How accurate is the forecast?
A forecast is only useful if it's been right. How it's been doing, at the bottom of the Tomorrow's recovery card on Today, shows you how close it's come for you lately.
The row
Closed, it's one row with a small ring. The number in the ring is how many of your recent mornings landed inside the likely range. Tap the row to open it.
Opened up
- Chance of green tomorrow: your chance of a green recovery tomorrow. It follows the sliders.
- The score line: for example "Last 14 healthy mornings. 9 landed inside the likely range; off by 12 points on average."
- The chart:
- The light band is the likely range for each morning.
- The dashed line is what the forecast said.
- Each dot is what really happened, in its recovery color, with a thin line to the forecast showing the miss.
- Read any morning: tap or drag across the chart. Below it you'll see the date, the actual recovery, the forecast and how far off it was. It starts on the latest morning.
Why you can trust the numbers
To score itself fairly, ZONAL rebuilds the forecast without your last 14 mornings, then forecasts each of them as if it didn't know the answer. It uses your usual sleep for each night, the same way the live forecast starts. So these are real misses, not hindsight.
Each morning's band is sized only from misses before that morning. A morning never widens or narrows its own band, so the count inside the range is a fair test.
Sick days and left-out travel days aren't scored. A morning that follows one of those days is skipped too, so you may see fewer than 14 dots.
Good to know. The likely range is sized from your own past misses to catch about 2 in 3 mornings, so roughly 1 in 3 will land outside it. That's expected. Watch the average miss: the smaller it is, the more you can lean on the forecast.
Questions
Why was the forecast way off one morning?
The forecast only knows your recovery, strain and sleep. Alcohol, stress, illness or a late meal can all move WHOOP's recovery in ways it can't see coming.
Does it get better over time?
It learns from up to a year of your healthy days, so more history gives it more to go on. The score line shows how it's doing right now.
Why don't I see How it's been doing?
It needs enough history to rebuild the forecast without your last 14 mornings. It shows once there's enough.